列）Bi21（矩阵B的第二列）Yix0i1（表示Y
数据）e
dalphaBB1BYaalpha11balpha21dba（计算时间响应函数参数）cx11dx21x01x1x01fori1
1
x2i1cexpaid（这里x2i1相当上面所讲的X1t1）
xi1x2i1x2i（这里xi1相当原来输入数据的预测数据X0t1）
e
d
fori212x2icexpai1d（对上面刚引出的x2i进行说明及计算）xix2ix2i1e
dfori1
errorixix0i（残差）error1iabserrori（计算残差，abs表示绝对值）error2ierror1ix0i（计算相对误差）e
d
Cstderror1stdx0（计算后验差检验数std表示标准差）k1（k表示预测长度，这里每次预测下一年）a
0106210475032772
b
b
1399996741173038e04B
B
f10e05
02930800000000000489155000000000068581500000000008673000000000001078925000000000135943500000000016836950000000002048485000000000244348000000000028580500000000003311735000000000C（求后检验数）
00000100000000000000010000000000000001000000000000000100000000000000010000000000000001000000000000000100000000000000010000000000000001000000000000000100000000000000010000000000
C
0163969348419772
x（原始数据X0i的对应的预测数据X0i，这里也是12个）
x10e04
Colum
s1through3195190000000000016957693858307821885790370699694
Colum
s4through6209710433030460623320972683461912593422554345592
Colum
s7through9288403088356519032072035941156563566589717441855
Colum
s10through12396624718053473044106886250944284904932361001964
eroor1（求残差）eroor1
f10e03Colum
s1through4
0262030614169218507790962930030651276043303046055Colum
s5through8
6718972683461907021122554345591915386911643481002400964058843441Colum
s9through12
2819102825581445085152819465269617068862509442840712323610019637eroor2（求相对误差）eroor2
Colum
s1through40013383931666626700396749143455250064790215945471
Colum
s5through80404708630494031000821154388896800506498293014290069647667996503
Colum
s9through120073251989751369002101812199863500402567512015160014736611912606
a0106210475032772
b1399996741173038e04
BB
f10e05
02930800000000000489155000000000068581500000000008673000000000001078925000000000135943500000000016836950000000002048485000000000244348000000000028580500000000003311735000000000
00000100000000000000010000000000000001000000000000000100000000000000010000000000000001000000000000000100000000000000010000000000000001000000000000000100000000000000010000000000
方法二程序（1）一次累加生成序列的matlab命令x01951919578196371969516602257233r