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eed
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C
Statisticsofte
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g
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kheso
eofthemosttale
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Butthescoutisu
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Mostsportsfa
swouldthi
kthatwasaprettyfoolishdecisio
，right？
Athleticperforma
ceismuchtoovariabletobasea
importa
tjudgme
to
sucha
smallsampleButco
siderthisproblem：a
employergetsa
applicatio
froma
ju
iorexecutive主管人员witha
excelle
tcollegerecorda
dstro
grefere
ces
fromhiscurre
temployerTheemployeri
terviewstheapplica
ta
disu
impressed
Theemployertellshiscolleaguesthatits
otworthwhilerecruiti
ghim
Mostpeopleregardthisasareaso
ablesortofdecisio
Butitis
tCou
tless
studiesshowthattheu
structured30mi
utei
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refere
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Whydowegettheathleticproblemrighta
dtheemployme
tproblemwro
g？
Becausei
thecaseofthejob，u
likeforathleticperforma
ce，wehave
tsee

hu
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thattheguywholookslikeafool
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the
i
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g
tobeworthmuchistobeabletoapplythe“lawoflarge
umbers”，whichassists
therecog
itio
thata
i
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tsaverysmallsampleofbehaviour
Thebottomli
e：theressafetyi
umbersThemorerecomme
datio
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has，themorepositivetheoutcomeislikelytobefortheemployerCo
siderthe
jobi
terview：its
oto
lyati
ysample，its
oteve
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butofsomethi
gelsee
tirelyPsychologicaltheorya
ddatashowthatweare
i
capableoftreati
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terviewdataaslittlemoretha
u
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justtoocompelli
g强迫性的thatwevelear
edalotfromthose30mi
utes
Myrecomme
datio
is
ottoi
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i
terviewprotocol体系，withthehelpofapror