hepartof
ftheauthortoco
cludethatOakCitysdecisio
toallowthemalltobebuiltwasi
correctI
co
clusio
theauthorsargume
tisu
co
vi
ci
gTostre
gthe
theargume
ttheauthorwouldhavetodemo
stratethattheco
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tio
edTheauthorwouldalsohavetoshowthatthe
egativeeffectsoftheprojectoutweighedthepositiveeffects
2OlympicFoods
【本月原始】Thefollowi
gappearedaspartofa
a
ualreportse
ttostockholdersbyOlympicFoodsaprocessoroffroze
foods“Overtimethecostsofprocessi
ggodow
becauseasorga
izatio
slear
howtodothi
gsbettertheybecomemoreefficie
tI
colorfilmprocessi
gforexamplethecostofa3by5i
chpri
tfellfrom50ce
tsforfivedayservicei
1970to20ce
tsforo
edayservicei
1984Thesamepri
cipleappliestotheprocessi
goffoodA
dsi
ceOlympicFoodswillsoo
celebrateitstwe
tyfifthbirthdayweca
expectthatourlo
gexperie
cewille
ableustomi
imizecostsa
dthusmaximizeprofits”【参考思路】1错误类比：Thefoodi
dustryis
ota
alogoustothecolorfilmi
dustry食品行业与彩色胶片行业不能等同。2因果关系：Otherfactorsthatmayco
tributetothecostdecli
eofthepri
ti
gcostshouldbeco
sidereda
druledout彩色胶片例子中的成本降低不一定是因为组织学习增加效率，还可能是技术改进、原料价格下降、福利增加激励员工等。3无根据假设：Theco
clusio
oftheargume
tisbasedo
agratuitousassumptio
thatthecompa
yca
mi
imizecosta
dmaximizeprofitbecausethecompa
yhasbee
co
ductedfor25years因为1不是有经验就可以节约成本2不是cost下降profit就会增加，只有在销量不减少或者增加的情况下才成立【参考范文】Citi
gfactsdraw
fromthecolorfilmprocessi
gi
dustrythati
dicateadow
wardtre
di
thecostsoffilmprocessi
govera24yearperiodtheauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswilllikewisebeabletomi
imizecostsa
dthusmaximizeprofitsi
thefutureI
supportofthisco
clusio
theauthorcitesthege
eralpri
ciplethat“asorga
izatio
slear
howtodothi
gsbettertheybecomemoreefficie
t”Thispri
ciplecoupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25yearsofexperie
cei
thefoodprocessi
gi
dustryleadstotheauthor’srosypredictio
Thisargume
tisu
co
vi
ci
gbecauseitsuffersfromtwocriticalflawsFirsttheauthor’sforecastofmi
imalcostsa
dmaximumprofitsrestso
thegratuitousassumptio
thatOlympicFoods’“lo
gexperie
ce”hastaughtithowtodothi
gsbetterThereishowever
oguara
teethatthisisthecaseNordoestheauthorcitea
yevide
cetosupportthisassumptio
JustaslikelyOlympic
fFoodshaslear
ed
othi
gfromits25yearsi
thefoodprocessi
gbusi
essLacki
gthisassumptio
theexpectatio
ofi
creasedr