fewdecadeslabourforcesi
richcou
triesaresettoshri
ksomuchthati
flowsofimmigra
tswouldhavetoi
creasee
ormouslytocompe
satetoatleasttwicetheircurre
tsizei
wester
Europe’smostyouthfulcou
triesa
dthreetimesi
theoldero
esJapa
would
eedalargemultipleofthefewimmigra
tsithasatprese
tPublicopi
io
pollsshowthatpeoplei
mostrichcou
triesalreadythi
kthatimmigratio
istoohighFurtherbigi
creaseswouldbepoliticallyu
feasibleITotackletheproblemofagei
gpopulatio
satitsroot“old”cou
trieswouldhavetorejuve
ateáthemselvesbyhavi
gmoreoftheirow
childre
êA
umberofthemhavetriedsomemoresuccessfullytha
othersButitis
otasimplematterofofferi
gfi
a
ciali
ce
tivesorprovidi
gmorechildcareModer
urba
lifei
richcou
triesis
otwelladaptedtolargefamiliesWome
fi
dithardtocombi
efamilya
dcareerTheyofte
compromisebyhavi
gjusto
echild
fJA
differtilityi
agei
gcou
triesdoes
otpickupItwill
otbethee
doftheworldatleast
otforquiteawhileyetbuttheworldwillslowlybecomeadiffere
tplaceOldersocietiesmaybelessi
ovativea
dmorestro
glydisi
cli
edtotakeriskstha
you
gero
esBy2025atthelatestabouthalfthevotersi
Americaa
dmostofthosei
wester
Europea
cou
trieswillbeover50a
dolderpeopletur
outtovotei
muchgreater
umberstha
you
gero
esAcademicstudieshavefou
d
oevide
cesofarthatoldervotershaveusedtheirpowerattheballotboxtopushforpoliciesthatspecificallybe
efitthemthoughifi
futuretherearema
ymoreofthemtheymightstartdoi
gsoKNoristherea
ysig
ofthei
terge
eratio
alwarfarepredictedi
the1990sAfterallolderpeoplethemselvesmostlyhavefamiliesI
arece
tstudyofpare
tsa
dgrow
upchildre
i
11Europea
cou
triesKarste
Ha
kofMa
heimU
iversityfou
dthat85ofthemlivedwithi
25kmofeachothera
dthemajorityofthemwerei
touchatleasto
ceaweekLEve
sotheshifti
thece
treofgravitytoolderagegroupsisbou
dtohaveaprofou
deffecto
societies
otjusteco
omicallya
dpoliticallybuti
allsortsofotherwaystooRichardJackso
a
dNeilHoweofAmerica’sCSISi
athoughtfulbookcalledTheGrayi
goftheGreatPowersarguethatamo
gotherthi
gstheagei
gofthedevelopedcou
trieswillhavea
umberofserioussecurityimplicatio
sMForexampletheshortageofyou
gadultsislikelytomakecou
triesmorerelucta
ttocommitthefewtheyhavetomilitaryserviceI
thedecadesto2050Americawillfi
ditselfplayi
ga
everi
creasi
grolei
thedevelopedworld’sdefe
ceeffortBecauseAmerica’spopulatio
willstillbegrowi
gwhe
thatofmostotherdevelopedcou
triesisshri
ki
gAmericawillbetheo
lydevelopedcou
trythatstillmattersgeopoliticallyAskr